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TBG Staff - February 28, 2003
Jim Turner: Well, Gentlemen, with just 33 days until Opening Day, the players have arrived in Florida and Arizona, and the first signs of the 2003 season are in the air. In celebration, the temperature in Toronto has risen some 10 degrees to a balmy -5 (not including wind chill).
For Blue Jays fans, the promise of 2003 lies in a bevy of young hitters that propelled the team to respectability after last year's all-star break. With Vernon Wells and Eric Hinske looking to build on their first full seasons, Frank Catalanotto ready to set the table, and Josh Phelps ready to rake for an entire season, one of the more hotly debated subjects of the off-season has been the Jays batting order. Batting orders are largely trivial things – the difference between a good one and a bad one is perhaps 2-3 wins per season - but they make for great off-season fodder, especially when it’s February and grey snow banks are everywhere.
Here's how I see it, versus RH:
LF Stewart
Not that there's a hope in hell of this happening, since Delgado owns the label of cleanup hitter, but he is the team's best hitter, and that's where I think your best hitter bats.
Christopher James: See, now, if this was my team, I would shake things up a little
more. Assuming Catalanotto can get himself in decent shape, and remain
healthy for more than 68 games, I would bat him behind Stewart, and hope
for numbers approaching his 2001 season (.330 batting average, .391 on-base
percentage, 31 doubles, and 15 stolen bases - ok...I said approaching). After
Frank, I agree with Jim, you want to bat your best hitter, but do you stick
Delgado in there and risk another ugly incident, a la George Bell. We all
know where Carlos feels most comfortable, and I do not know nor care to
know the colour of Delgado's rear, so I'll put him in the number four spot,
and push the young Vernon Wells into the number three spot, and see how he
reacts.
Hinske will have enough pressure on him this spring, so I would keep
him out of number three batter discussions until at least mid-season. Put
him at number five and follow him with Josh Phelps. These two could really
flip-flop, but I have more confidence in Hinske repeating his 2002,
and like him hitting behind Carlos. No pitcher in the A.L. will think twice
about walking Delgado to get to Phelps--Hinske may provide a little
protection. After Phelps, who do we have left? Woodward, Hudson, and
Mywilsuck. Figuring Mywilsuck will be the pit in the order, where to we put him?
I figure we put Hudson at the bottom. I don't know what to expect from
Hudson. Best case scenario I figure he's a .280 hitter with a good handful of
steals. Put him at nine and get someone on for the top of the order that
won't clog the bases. That leaves Woodward, a decent hitter, at seven, and our
catching dynamo at eight. Whew. Not a bad looking team this year--
and if we have Cash ready behind the plate by next spring, we'll have even
more jimmying room. To recap, here is my 2003 Blue Jay batting order:
LF Stewart
Joel Williams: Boys, boys, boys. It looks as though the Blue Jay line-up doesn't
inspire any real debate. And while it's not so great for us as fans
and speculators, Carlos Tosca is fortunate he really doesn't have a
lot to do this spring.
I have realised though, the question we're really trying to answer is
not 'What should the Jays batting order be?' but more
accurately: 'Who should bat third?'
Obviously, the Jays will bat Stewart first. He will be followed by
Catalanotto. (The Jays brought in Catalanotto for his bat and if he
isn't hitting second, he'd be a waste at 7th, 8th or 9th (because he
sure as hell ain't batting in the middle of the order!)). But then
who?
Delgado? No. If he bats 3rd, it's Josh Phelps who hits in the clean-
up spot. If you are worried about Hinske's production in his second
season, imagine Phelps with his half-a-year's experience batting 4th!
Talk about pressure.
Wells? Nope. He's still a little raw, and doesn't have the patience
to be dangerous at number three. Maybe in a year or two.
So here it is:
Stewart
The solution, you see, is Eric Hinske. He hit well last year in the
number two spot, but is really more suited to hit third. So why not
put him there? Hopefully his work ethic and attitude will keep him
free from that sophomore slump. And if he can even improve a little,
well, there really will be no debate.
Sean Doyle: First of all, let's assume that all the projected Blue Jay starters
perform as expected - that Hudson, Woodward and Phelps establish
themselves as everyday players, that Catalanotto approaches his 2001
numbers, that Hinske and Wells continue to develop as hitters, that
Stewart and Delgado don't show any signs of decline, and that the
catchers are, um, nice people.
Both Delgado and Stewart are pretty much guaranteed to bat in their
usual spots, and we all seem to agree that Woodward/catchers/Hudson
will fill out the 7-8-9 spots. That leaves us with the 2,3,5, and 6
spots to fill:
2: Eric Hinske was a very good #2 hitter last year, but Frank
Catalanotto also fits the bill: a high OBP guy with decent power and
speed. Hinske has more power, however, and this may make him more
valuable farther down in the order. Let's say Catalanotto as the
second hitter for now, although this could change if he struggles or
if Hinske throws a Shannon Stewart hissyfit over a change in the
batting order.
3: I agree with Joel that the third spot is the most intriguing
question this year. While Hinske is a great candidate (he'd be a
great candidate pretty much anywhere) I'll go with Carlos Tosca's
choice by the end of last season, Vernon Wells. I see three reasons
why he is the best choice to bat third: 1) He will be under less
scrutiny than Hinske, as people always seem to make a huge deal
about any perceived decline in Rookie of the y ear winners. 2) Wells
is a less patient hitter than Hinske, and will benefit more from
batting in front of Delgado. 3) Wells was the 3 hitter by the end of
last season and did a fine job there.
5/6: I would bat Phelps and Hinske in these spots. Hinske has twice
as much big-league experience, but there is every reason to believe
that he is the real deal. I'd place him fifth for now, because like
Wells he will benefit from a tough hitter behind him. Hinske batting
sixth also means that opposing teams will be less inclined to pitch
around Delgado to get to Phelps, as that could lead to a lot of big
innings. Chris Woodward has shown 20 HR power (18 in 505 career AB)
and would be good protection for Hinske.
The only drawback to having Hinske in the sixth spot is that he will
get maybe 80 or so fewer plate appe arances than if he was batting
second. This season is the second of J.P. Ricciardi's mandate, and
the name of the game is still player development. For this reason I
think the Jays should keep Hinske in the two spot, and move
Catalanotto to sixth. It might cost (maybe) a game in the standings
this year but if it helps Hinske develop I'd take it in a second.
Stewart
JT: Personally, I regard "protection" as a myth. Players are going to perform
according to their ability, not according to who happens to batting around them. Wells stands to be better this year, but I still don't
want his .305 OBP batting third.
The notion of Catalanotto-Hinske-Delgado works in terms of
appropriate skill sets, but all three bat from the left side. Hinske
posted a .632 OPS vs. lefties last year, and Delgado just .685. This
lineup makes it very easy for opposing managers to align their left-
righty specialists against us. F.Cat-Delgado-Phelps-Hinske-Wells has
a lovely L-R-L-R rhythm to it. Granted, games against teams with
two or three lefties in the pen will take three and a half hours.
As for a lineup vs. lefties:
LF Stewart
Sprinkled with the occasional Dave Berg start at 3B/SS/2B.
CJ: Okay, for just a minute let's pretend that our veterans of the Tim Johnson
war are not a bunch of spoiled babies stuck on that warm feeling one gets
from constantly losing. Let's wipe that Ernie Banks smile off their
faces, dry out the diapers, and put them in the batting order that would best
suit the TEAM. We'll lie to them if we have to. Okay, top of the order, who?
Not Shannon Stewart. He may very well be our best hitter, and according
to the law of Jim, that puts him at #3 in the order. He ain't coming back.
We'll convince him that a #3 batter with 100 runs batted in will get more
from the Yankees than a leadoff hitter with 14 stolen bases.
I'd bat Hinske second--he hit well there last year, and with a swing like his I can't see
him going through any prolonged sophomore slumps. Delgado fourth, just
because of his power--and with Stewart and Hinske on in front of him, he
should drive in 150 runs, and look nice in Red Sox red next year (do you
think the Jays are working Phelps out at first for fun?). Wells fifth,
Phelps sixth, Woodward seventh, catcher eighth, & pimp-daddy Hudson ninth.
That leaves the lead-off spot open for Frankie C.
Assuming he hasn't gone blind by the start of the season (look up at those fly balls Frank), I
think Frank would be a smashing leadoff hitter. Look at his stats from Texas.
Frank had a .337 (112-352) average in 76 games as the Rangers' leadoff
batter and compiled the majors' best leadoff on-base percentage at .398
(146-367). (Dig that Jim-- I can lift stats too--right off the BJ's
website). So Yes.
Frankie C.
JT: Way to go, CJ, but the stat you should've lifted was .446, Stewart's
lifetime slugging percentage. That's fine for a number three hitter - if
this was 1903, but it's a hundred years later and about a hundred points too
low. Besides, Stewart has the best blend of speed and OBP on the team and is
clearly the best leadoff option. (Though anyone who thinks he might hit 30
HR is dreaming).
The best options for #3 are Delgado, Hinske and Phelps. Delgado can post a
.400 OBP and .500 SLG in his sleep, as many accused him of doing last year.
You can't expect the same producion of Hinske and Phelps, at least not yet.
I can't see Delgado getting upset about moving UP in the order, and I think
Jays management may be open-minded enough to see that this is the best move.
SD: I don't fully agree that protection in the lineup is a myth, although it is often overrated as a factor in a hitter's performance. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy - a pitcher is worried about the guy on deck and, fearing the dreaded big inning he tries to stay within the strike zone. Good, and even average pitchers do not do this, but some of the mediocre ones will. This may not make a significant difference in run production over the course of a season but it will help a free-swinging youngster like Vernon Wells develop. Phelps and Hinske have shown good discipline throughout their careers, and Wells is 24, which is still young enough to make another leap as a hitter, but if this is going to happen, it should happen soon. What better time to stick him in front of an elite veteran lefty hitter than now? The next time the Jays will have one is when its Hinske in six years, and since this season is still about developing the young guys , I'd give Wells every chance to hit in the third spot - he needs the practice more than Hinske, who is the already the posterboy for the new Ricciardian offence.
So let's keep Wells sandwiched all comfy between the strongest hitters we can find, and give him the AB's at the top of the order to see if he can continue to progress as a hitter. If he flounders as a three hitter, then by the end of the season we'll know that he should bat sixth. The Stewart-Hinske-Wells-Delgado-Phelps-Frankie-Woodward-Myers-Hudson lineup also has the added bonus of alternating left and right hitters from 1 to 8, with a spicy switch-hitter at the bottom.
If Wells does not work out in the third spot (and let's wait until at least May) I'd drop him to sixth and try Hinske as a #3 hitter. In this case I would move Shannon Stewart to the second spot and bat Catalanotto leadoff. Stewart's blend of skills would make him a great #2 hitter, and it would also showcase him for the first high-rolling team that wants that extra playoff bat...
My backup batting order:
RF Catalanotto
JW: You absolutely cannot have a lead-foot batting third. He must be able
to run a little. That way your team's options in the first inning
stay open, no matter what the situation and number of outs may be. As
to the R-L-R-L thing through the order - I like it. Unfortunately,
you lose either Hinske or Catalanotto near the top. And both of their
bats are better than Wells'.
And as for Stewart batting third, Chris (I see someone has been
reading my article), (yes, that is a shameless plug - go read it) it
just won't work - for a number of reasons: his desire and more
importantly, his ability.
I stick by my original order; bring on the late inning lefties!
JT: Hold on now, Delgado doesn't steal bases, but he's not exactly a filing cabinet out there. Seems to me the Yankees did fine with that Ruth kid batting third, and I'll take Delgado over Ruth in a foot race, especially considering the years of decomposition.
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