Free For All: How Many Wins?
TBG Staff - March 31, 2003

Jim Turner: It's been quite a while since a Blue Jay set foot on a baseball field for a meaningful game. In the intervening months we've been witness to rally monkeys running amok, trades, free agent signings, surprise non-tenders and a truckload of spring training games that don't really amount to anything. All the while, the one question that has been building, with varying degrees of enthusiasm, has been: Just how good are these guys?

Tonight, finally, the speculation is over, and baseball returns to Toronto, as Godzilla and the pinstripers kick off the 2003 season against Doc Halladay and the revamped flock. An upbeat front office has predicted a .500 season, but cautioned that this is still a rebuilding year and a team on the path to contention, but not there just yet. I think there's a lot of Cheshire Cat grin lurking just beneath the surface of these forecasts. I don't think it would surprise J.P. and the front office all that much if the Jays were sitting in a wild card berth or within a few games of one in Mid- August.

Joel couldn't partake in this discussion, but as he was jetting off for the sunny climes of the Dominican Republic for the next week (Insert envious cursing here), he predicted 84 wins. Personally, I'm more optimistic. The offensive potential for this club is outstanding, and yes, young hitters can disappoint, but their general tendency is to improve. The Jays could, quite reasonably, improve their production at all 9 positions this season.

I see the question marks in the rotation, and yes their tagline could soon be "Justin and Tanyon and play in a canyon," but there's big upside here too, and I'm calling for a breakout year for Mark Hendrickson. Lastly, we shouldn't ignore the unknown quantity of mid- season acquisitions. J.P. is an active GM, and I think before the season is over, he'll have snagged someone's top prospect, or former phenom, for next to nothing.

In my last piece I compared these Jays to those of 1983, and while they're hardly a perfect match, I'm picking the Jays of 2K3 to post 89 wins as well.

Sean Doyle: Aaaah, opening day, when optimism abounds. The question is, how much of our optimism is justified when it comes to Toronto? Baseball statheads throughout the land are in love with the Riccardi-ites, and in the Toronto Star today J.P. Predicted an 85-win season. Ricciardi has proven himself to be a pretty good guesser in baseball matters, and I think that given the fact that the Jays will play AL punching bags Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and Detroit more than they will play the Yankees and the Mighty AL West trio of Oakland, Seattle, and Anaheim, their schedule won't get in the way of a good win total. I'm going to split the difference between Jim and J.P., and round down by a game on a hunch. Pencil me in for an 86-win season.

Christopher James: Jays Record:87-75 .537 - same as 1988

Starting 9 (BA, HR, RBI)

Stewart .319 12 75
Cat .295 19 77
Wells .320 32 122
Delgado .315 36 129
Phelps .269 12 70
Hinske .290 25 90
Woodward .270 7 65
Huckaby .235 8 49
Hudson .295 2 55

All Stars:
Wells
Stewart
Hinske

3rd place in the East behind Boston and NY

JT: Chris, you're a man of few words, just what I look for in a writer. Though I have to say you might want to adjust the rose-coloured shades on Wells. You also seem to have reversed the home runs for Woody and Catalanotto. And Phelps is only going to play for a month? But hey, that's what spring predictions are for, and if we're way off – well that's what text editors are for. We're fairly close to a consensus, that the Jays will be a pretty good team this season.

Play ball.

CJ:OK, I like JP Ricciardi, but I learned during the Gord Ash era to ignore any opinions/predictions that come from the mouth of the GM (hi, wild card contenders from 97-00, hello Joey Hamilton, 20 game winner, hello Jose "Jr. Griffey" Cruz). I have also learned that Sports Illustrated is equally useless as far as predictions go, and that the hefty pair of so-called baseball writers at Toronto's most middle of the road paper probably have trouble even picking their noses properly (I'm looking at you Too-Small, who called Tony Fernandez chicken hearted when we acquired him in 1993, and suggested that he would severely hurt our chances for a second title.)

Anyhow, for help with my predictions this year, I got into my way back machine and travelled back, wayyy back, to an earlier, more pleasant time, pre-losers club (oh, how I hated Gonzalez/Green), even pre-World Series, to the magical year of 1988. A simpler time. More wholesome perhaps, when Buck Martinez was only a mediocre announcer, and Tony Fernandez still roamed the infield. 1988. 87-75. Book it.