Jim Turner - May 26, 2003
With the Chicago White Sox in town for a four-game set, it seems like an appropriate time to examine one of the quieter moves of the off-season. When the Blue Jays signed Tanyon Sturtze, they were essentially replacing what they had lost in Esteban Loaiza - a veteran swingman with the ability to eat innings – at one-sixth of the cost. Loaiza signed a minor league deal with the White Sox before winning a rotation spot in spring training.
Almost two months into the season, the two men have posted very different results. Sturtze has been mediocre at best, surrendering a 6.14 ERA before being assigned to the bullpen. Loaiza, meanwhile, has gone Greg Maddux on everyone, and currently sports a 7-2 record and a league-leading 1.92 ERA.
Loaiza, named American League pitcher of the month for his stellar April (5-0, 1.25), credits much of his success to a shiny new cut fastball that he's added to his repertoire in the last year. Certainly, the decision to allow Loaiza to walk and replace him with Sturtze looks like a bad one at this point, but a closer look at their respective numbers suggests that both pitchers could well be headed for a reversal in fortunes.
Look at the following pitching line:
Already this season, Loaiza's numbers are starting to slide:
Then again, let's also consider Loaiza's competition. In 10 starts, he's faced:
As for Tanyon Sturtze, the move to the bullpen could mean a career revival. Consider what hitters have done against Sturtze since 2000:
W L IP H BB SO ER ERA
13 3 136 115 27 105 35 2.31
That's awfully impressive, and that's what Esteban Loaiza has done in his first month of the last four seasons: April 2000, 2001, 2003 and May 2002 (he was on the DL that April). This for a pitcher with a career ERA of 4.73 and an opponent's batting average of .290. Loaiza has very fluid mechanics, and has always been perceived as somewhat rubber-armed. It's possible that he takes less time to get himself ready in the spring, and is therefore a step ahead of opposing hitters early in the season. Then again, maybe he just likes the spring weather. Whatever the case, Loaiza has clearly established himself as a fast starter
ERA W L IP H R ER BB SO AVG
April 1.25 5 0 36.0 19 5 5 5 35 .151
May 2.73 2 2 29.2 30 9 9 15 18 .270
The 2.73 ERA masks quite a bit, but the hits per inning are back up to more than 1, and the 7:1 strikeout to walk ratio is a thing of the past. Still, these numbers aren't too bad; Loaiza's cutter may well be helping him, and of course everyone's entitled to a career year. Maybe this is the year that Loaiza goes 16-7, puts up an ERA under 3.50 and has himself a free agent bonanza.
Team Rank in Runs scored (A.L.) Starts
Tigers 14th 3
Oakland 10th 1
Kansas City 9th 2
Minnesota 8th 2
Baltimore 6th 2
Seattle 5th 1
That's a pretty easy ride. Loaiza was roughed up by Seattle, but hasn't yet had to face the likes of the Rangers, Red Sox and Blue Jays. That ends this week with the White Sox trip to SkyDome. Look for the Jays to make a rather large dent in that 1.92 ERA, because like Neil Armstrong, Internet stocks and the Kansas City Royals before him, Esteban Loaiza is due to come back to Earth any time now.
AB R H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS
2105 319 605 116 6 74 218 319 .287 .361 .454 .815
Breaking Sturtze's numbers down, it's clear that he's a good deal more effective early in games:
AB R H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS
Innings 1-3 857 129 236 53 2 24 91 143 .275 .350 .426 .776
Inning 1 272 34 67 15 0 6 34 51 .246 .337 .368 .704
Pitches 1-30 647 105 165 37 0 18 75 112 .255 .341 .396 .736
If Sturtze enters a game knowing he only has to throw 20 pitches instead of 80-100, he can presumably add some velocity and improve his performance even more. If he can put the disappointment of being ousted from the rotation behind him, Sturtze could become the short reliever the Jays have been missing since another failed starter, Paul Quantrill, was dealt to Los Angeles. And in the baseball universe, there are far worse things to be than Paul Quantrill.
