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Jim Turner - June 13, 2003
After 67 games, one thing is absolutely clear about the 2003 Toronto Blue Jays: these guys can hit. They hit when they're winning, they hit when they trail; they hit bloopers and gappers and mash without fail.
Now that the remains of Dr. Seuss are spinning like a lathe, just how good is this Blue Jays offense? It's on pace to be the best in club history, and to set numerous club, if not major league, records. Now "pace" always has to be taken with a grain of salt. After all, Karl "Tuffy" Rhodes was once on pace to hit 486 home runs in a season. He ended up with eight. But 67 games is a decent sample size, so let's see how this edition of the Big Blue Flock stacks up with its predecessors.
Runs: The Blue Jays and Red Sox are neck and neck in runs per game – almost 6.3 - and they're well ahead of everyone else in baseball. Both teams are on track to score more than 1000 times. The odds are against either team maintaining that kind of pace, but the Jays need to average just 4.9 runs/game the rest of the way to set a new club record, and they should clear 900 runs for the first time. If Shannon Stewart stays in Toronto, the Jays will have a shot at four players with 100 or more runs.
Club Record: 883 (1999)
Hits: Ten and a half hits per game are the reason that Cory Lidle might win 20 games this season, even if his ERA stays over 5.00. It's amazing that this club is outpacing the 1993 team, which featured 200-hit men Molitor and Olerud, by 130 hits. On the current squad, only Vernon Wells is due to clear the 200 hit mark.
Club Record: 1580 (1999)
Doubles: If it seems as though all of those hits are into the gaps, you're not far off. Five Jays already have 18 two-baggers, with Wells and Catalanotto tied atop the AL with 23 apiece. No one's going to catch Earl Webb's single season record of 67, but as a unit, the Jays are on pace to hit 435 doubles, which would obliterate the ML record of 373 held jointly by the Cardinals of '30 and the Red Sox of 1997.
Club Record: 337 (1999)
Average: How bad are the Detroit Tigers? As a team, their on base percentage of .284 is 10 points lower than the Jays team batting average. Everyone this side of Eric Hinske is hitting. The part time guys are raking the ball: Tom Wilson, Dave Berg, Greg Myers, even Howie Clark. There simply isn’t a weak link on the team. Even the pitchers are hitting .222.
Club Record: .280 (1999)
On Base Percentage: Perhaps the biggest feather in J.P. Ricciardi's cap is the Jays sparkling .360 OBP. In 26 seasons, the Blue Jays have never led the American League in OBP, but could do so this season, as they rank just a couple of points behind Boston. It's a simple concept taken from page one of the sabermetric manifesto: Get on base and you'll score runs. Get on base A LOT and you'll score A LOT of runs. Amazingly, it's a concept that not all organizations seem to grasp.
How bad are the Detroit Tigers, Part II? The Blue Jays OBP is 36 points higher than the Tigers slugging percentage.
Club Record: .348 (1993)
Slugging Percentage: Home runs are one of the marks that the 2003 Jays aren't going to break. The 244 swats hit by the 2000 club are safe. However, on the strength of their batting average and doubles, the team slugging percentage is still poised to fall.
Club Record: .469 (2000)
Walks are another category in which the Jays likely won't set a new club standard, but they do currently rank 4th in the league, and that would be the highest a Blue Jays team has ever ranked in free passes.
Can the Jays continue to hit like this for the rest of the year? It's unlikely that Shannon Stewart will finish the season in Toronto and - despite the success of the offense in his absence - that will hurt. The Myers/Wilson platoon probably won't finish the season hitting .330, and Catalanotto and Vernon Wells may cool off a bit in the second half. Balanced against that, Eric Hinske should be better upon his return from the DL, and Josh Phelps, while he's hardly been a disaster, has yet to hit like the rookie monster of a year ago. The two sophomores have combined for just 10 home runs so far. Look for them to hit at least another 30 before the year's out.
Add it all up and the Jays are a good bet to score 950 runs, and shatter numerous club records on the way to the greatest offensive season in team history.
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