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Jim Turner - July 7, 2003
The Blue Jays were playing well, set to embark on a road trip against their weaker AL cousins, while the Yankees and Red Sox were due to take turns knocking the stuffing out of each other. It was the perfect opportunity for the team to make some real noise in the AL East standings. It just didn't quite work out that way.
Two and five.
The trip treated fans to the rare feat of a 2-game win streak by the 2003 Tigers and a gut-wrenching loss to the Orioles, as a 5-0 lead evaporated with just four outs to go. Instinctively, all baseball fans know that they'll have to endure two or three of those per season; games in which leads crumble and everything starts to go the way of the other team, every bleeder squeaks through, every dying quail drops in, and a nervous little voice inside starts to whisper "They're gonna blow it." It's the type of game that convinces you that A) There are baseball Gods, and B) They have a personal grudge against your team. Over 162 contests, such games are inevitable. That doesn't mean they don't hurt.
Orioles fans were treated to the exact same feeling in the final game at Camden Yards, as late home runs by Greg Myers and Eric Hinske, and a blown call at first base managed to salvage a win for the Jays, upgrading the road trip from unmitigated disaster to mitigated disaster.
And so, back at home for six games before the All-Star break, the Jays find themselves three games out of a wild card berth and facing 12 straight games against much tougher opposition than the Tigers and O's. Certainly, no team that's three games back with 73 to play is out of the race, but the outlook is far less rosy than it was 10 days ago. This could be a good thing.
The front office wasn't planning to be in the thick of a playoff race this soon, at least not publicly, but they also realize just how precious such chances are. J.P. Ricciardi had announced that if the Jays were in contention, he would look to bolster their existing roster and make a run, rather than selling off assets like Shannon Stewart and Cory Lidle for young players and prospects. The dismal showing in Detroit and Baltimore should be the equivalent of a 500 lb weight on the "sellers" side of the trade deadline scale.
The Yankees are now 7 games ahead of the Jays, and just about out of reach. Both the Yankees and Red Sox have more resources to use to add roster help than the Jays. Adding $10 million in payroll is nothing to the Yankees, but a huge gamble for Ricciardi and Co. So not only are the Jays chasing two teams that are likely better than they are, but they're chasing two teams that will probably improve between now and August.
In the face of such odds, the Jays would be wise to revert to their original plan. Instead of dealing for the likes of Armando Benitez, they should start to offload pending free agents for young and inexpensive talent. It's not as sexy as landing a marquee player, but it's safer for the long term plans of contention. Best of all, it doesn't prevent the team from competing right now.
This isn't a fire sale. The only players who should be jettisoned to contenders at this point are Lidle and Stewart. Lidle's 10 wins and status as "dependable veteran starter" should make him a hot commodity. Yes, it's a risk to replace Lidle with Corey Thurman or Jason Arnold, but it's a risk with a lot of upside. If the youngsters do get hammered back to Syracuse, there's always the Tanyon Sturtze fallback plan, and Sturtze can't pitch too much worse than Lidle and his 5.68 ERA. (Can he?)
Shannon Stewart should also fetch a good price, but losing him won't hurt too much. This offense is going to score a boatload of runs, whether Shannon Stewart or Reed Johnson is playing the outfield, and while I'm skeptical that Johnson can maintain his numbers playing full-time, he's certainly not going to cripple the team for half a season.
Ricciardi is also smart enough to walk away if no good trades present themselves, meaning Jays fans shouldn't have to relive the nightmare that was David Cone for Marty Janzen and Spinal Tap. The Jays will happily let Stewart and Lidle walk as free agents and collect compensatory draft picks.
As for free agent Kelvim Escobar, Ricciardi should seriously consider a contract extension. As a starter, since 2001, Escobar 8-8 with a 3.25 ERA, and has given up just 111 hits in 130 innings, while striking out 118 and walking 50. He's 27 years old. This seems like exactly the type of player Ricciardi will be looking for, so why trade him?
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