Today's Richard Griffin column in the Toronto Star dealt with Curt Schilling's impending trade to Boston. Seems Schilling is in favour of it, the Red Sox are in favour, and all that's left is to hammer out the contract details. All valid information, but apparently not enough to meet Griffin's word quota, because he then pads the columen with shots at the Jays front office, interpreting the Schilling trade as evidence "that the Blue Jays are the only team in the AL East to be content with standing still."

Despite the fact the Jays have been the most active team in the division this offseason, according to Griffin they're about to be eclipsed by the other four teams in the division. Boston's acquisition of Schilling will drive the Yankees to sign Andy Pettitte, Javier Vasquez, try to clone from the DNA of Lefty Grove, etc. And doormats Baltimore and Tampa? According to Griffin, "the Devil Rays and the O's have also indicated a willingness to spend money to break through the glass ceiling of the last six years." Indicated a willingness? Oh, they're going to do something. And something could potentially mean anything. They Orioles could sign Miguel Tejada and Vladimir Guerrero (they'll still finish fourth).

The Jays meanwhile? They "are, once again, being fiscally responsible, to the delight of brainwashed fans." Here Griffin neatly pre-empts any criticism by insulting those who might dare to disagree with him. Then he unleashes some of the most specious numbers imaginable to support his argument.

The Jays, you see, have "a grand total of just 70 returning major-league wins" on the current 40-man roster. Does this mean the club will go 70-92 next season? It sounds like that's what Griffin's afraid of, but there are only 51 returning losses on next year's staff. That's a winning percentage of .579, which projects to a 94-win season. So should we start the wild card party now? There's no way to tell, because as a predictive measure, "returning wins" is about the most asinine statistic imaginable. By comparison, the Yankees, with the departures of Clemens, Wells and Pettitte, have only 39 "returning wins" on their roster. Anyone think the Yankees will only win 39 games next season?

There are some decent stats to predict future success, notably run differential and team age. The Jays score well in both areas and there's every reason to think they'll be a good team again this year, possibly a contender. But that sort of thinking doesn't fit into Griffin's sky-is-falling scenario.

The most baffling part about the column is that none of the teams mentioned have done anything yet. Boston doesn't yet have Schilling, the Yankees haven't signed Pettitte or Colon, and the Devil Rays and Orioles haven't done a thing (but remember, they're going to). On the other hand, the Jays did make a move today, inking P Bruce Chen to a minor league deal. That's about as sexy as Barney Gumble in a bikini, but with a much higher upside. It's a typical Ricciardi move, in that there's virtually no risk to the team, but if Chen can finally fulfill his considerable potential, the payoff will be substantial. Just ask the Chicago White Sox.