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TBG Staff - July 21, 2004
Christopher James: As the trade deadline races toward us, so too is the time for JP to
start evaluating the BJ's roster. This season is all but lost, but how far should the GM cut? Is Lilly as good as gone? Miguel? Delgado? Present me with a list of the Jays you would put on JP's 'untouchable' list.
Jim Turner: Well, Delgado's not going anywhere, what with the contract, the
injuries and the no-trade clause. But he also represents about 40% of the payroll, so it's not as if Ricciardi has to go into fire sale mode here to rid the club of overpriced veterans.
Lilly is 28, he's signed through 2005 and he's a solid #2 starter. He's exactly the type of player the Jays have been looking for, so
there's no point in dealing him unless there's a real blow-away offer on the table. And certainly, teams that are on the cusp of the playoffs have been known to overpay for pitching before.
The Jays should try to unload some of the more expensive bullpen trinkets. Terry Adams, Kerry Ligtenberg, I'm looking at you. Relievers are always highly sought after at the deadline, and teams selling relievers have
been on the receiving end of some of the best deadline deals: Cruz for Timlin and Spoljaric. Larry Andersen for some guy named Bagwell. Heck, the Jays were even able to unload Randy Myers' insane contract on the Padres
in '98. Relievers are easily replaceable commodities, but it doesn't
always seem that way when you're in contention and you need one. The
Yankees are using Tanyon Freakin' Sturtze in the pen right now. Work those
phones JP.
The Jays have some interesting spare parts: Gregg Zaun may go, since
switch-hitting catchers batting .300 and throwing out 40% of runners
aren't exactly common. I could see Frank Menechino heading back to
Oakland
now that he's found his bat again. Billy Beane can't be happy with
Mark (sub-.300 OBP) Scutaro. Catalanotto rumours are also swirling, and as much as I like Frank,
it's not like corner outfielders are impossible to find, and that would
be another $2 million shaved off the payroll.
Everyone else on the roster is relatively young and cheap, so I wouldn't look for huge changes on the horizon.
Joel Williams: You're right Jim, King Carlos isn't going anywhere (until the season is over, anyway). And with the Josh Phelps,
see-how-many-homers-he-can-hit-playing-right-bench experiment over, and the return of the Cat and V-Dub from injury,
there's soon to be a glut of players needing at-bats for the Jays.
Reed Johnson has proved he can play everyday in the majors, and proved
he can do so fairly well (and really cheaply). Alex Rios has realised
that he can hit major league pitching and would only be taking a step
backwards if he was returned to Syracuse. Vernon Wells is an all-star centre
fielder, and Catalanotto hits .330.
So with Phelps back to hitting uper deck shots at the Dome (he now has
2)
it's bye-bye Cat, we hardly knew ye.
My second pick to go is Chris Woodward. Though the problem with him
being traded is the fact that another team will want to have him. Untouchables? Wells, Hudson, Halladay. And Delgado won't be going
anywhere. Anyone else, keep your bags packed.
CJ: Thanks for the novel boys...very enlightening...
Untouchable:
V.Dub
At this point these fellas are not replaceable. I only throw Frasor in
the mix because he is the only half decent pen-arm we have here or in the
minors.
Rumored to move but not likely:
Bautista
Why dump these adequate #3 and #4 starters to replace them with
sub-adequate #3 and #4 starters (as we have done so many times in past
years). These guys are doing the job consistently, and rather cheaply.
Also, all of our 'future stars' on the mound have sunk in the minors this
year, due to injury or etc. Still a few years away.
On the way out:
Delgado
Delgado, probably to Boston if Randy lands in NY. They can afford the
rental more than they can afford to drop the pants again and come up
lacking.
The Cat and Zaun are more valuable to other teams than the Jays, so they
are gone, guaranteed.
Moving the bullpen is just wishful thinking. Christ they suck. Friggin
Lightenburg. Adams. Yuck. Make me sick.
JT: I really don't understand the Delgado to Boston rumours, especially in
response to the Yankees grabbing Johnson. It's not like Delgado can pitch,
and Boston already has Ortiz and Millar at 1B/DH, and they're 3rd in the
league in runs scored. $9 million is a little steep for an upgrade at DH,
especially one who's hitting .215. The Texas rumours are even more
bizarre, since the Rangers are leading the AL in runs.
Halladay and Wells are my only untouchables on the club. Hudson, who seems
on the cusp of becoming a legit leadoff-type, is close. My inclination
would be to keep Frasor, but the last rookie relievers to have similar
seasons for the Jays were Bob File and Aquilino Lopez, so if someone out
there is willing to overpay, Ricciardi should jump at a deal. I doubt most
contenders would be interested, since they prefer "proven" bullpen
veterans for the stretch drive.
Sean Doyle: There are two kinds of players that a team in the Jays' position has to think about: the players they would like to trade and the ones they may be able to trade for something good. While I'm sure they'd be thrilled to trade Terry Adams, for instance, its hard to imagine a contending team making an offer for him, as they can get him for the price of a waiver claim in a couple of weeks anyway. Likewise, they could get a great return for Vernon Wells, although there's no way any team would offer enough to get him.
That being said, here is how I would place each player (insert flashy chart here) Tradable means that some team somewhere could use that player. The Keepers are the players where no reasonable trade scenario could convince JP to part ways with him. The Stuck with Him players are ones who could not be traded to any sane GM without being included as part of some larger, very lucrative deal. Young Guys I've listed seperately as they are not likely to be involved in deadline deals, even though it might not be clear if they're keepers or not.
Keepers: Vernon Wells, Orlando Hudson, Eric Hinske, Josh Phelps, Roy Halladay
Tradable and Expendible: Miguel Batista, Ted Lilly, Reed Johnson, Frank Catalanotto, Gregg Zaun, Frank Menechino, Chris Gomez, Chris Woodward, Josh Towers, Kerry Lightenberg (look at that K rate), Justin Speier
Stuck with Him: Terry Adams, Valerio De Los Santos, Pat Hentgen, Greg Myers, Dave Berg, Carlos Delgado (no trade and all)
Young Guys: David Bush, Vinny Chulk, Bob File, Jason Frasor, Justin MIller, Kevin Cash, Alexis Rios
Hinske and Phelps are in the Keepers column only because the Jays would be selling low if they traded them now. And although Batista is tradable in theory it wouldn't look too good on JP if he traded him four months into a three-year deal. That kind of thing could hurt the clubs chances of attracting free agents in the future so I don't see it as likely.
So which guys will be traded? Well, a lot can happen in a week and a half; given that I have no clue I'd say the Jays jettison Zaun, Lightenberg, Speier, and Menechino, and I think they'll stock up on potential relief pitchers hoping to find a diamond in the rough or two.
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