Free For All: The LCS
TBG Staff - October 12, 2004

Now that we're down to four teams, what can we expect from the League Championship Series?

Joel Williams: Well we've got two great LCS lined up. The two best teams in the American League facing off and the best team in the majors playing the best team over the last month. All the teams deserve to be there (and I don't want to hear a sole lamenting the departure of the Braves.) But only two move on. Which teams will make it?

ALCS: While I hate to do it, and I'm rooting against them with all I've got, I predict the Yankees to go through to the World Series. It'll take them 7 games again.

They've just got too many players who can win a game all by themselves. Though they're going to have to find a way to beat Curt and Pedro at least twice.

NLCS: About a month and a half ago I took a look at the Houston Astros and couldn't figure out how this team was below .500. I predicted then that they'd make the playoffs, and they did, just barely. But can they stop the Cards? I doubt it.

Teams need a little of that special something for the playoffs. And Houston doesn't quite have it yet. They almost lost to the lowly Braves! My prediction: Cardinals in 6.

Jim Turner: We'll start with the NLCS. Houston has the 1-2 punch of Clemens and Oswalt, and Carlos Beltran trying to earn himself a large pile of money on the free agent market. St. Louis lacks that #1, guaranteed-win starter, but is very solid 1 through 5 (well, 4 with Carpenter out), and has a frightening offense that should wear down the Astros middle relief corps. I'll say that Oswalt and Clemens win a game each, but it's not enough to stop Larry Walker from making his first trip to the World Series. Cards in 6.

Over to the ALCS, where it's hard to root for either of these teams, but by default, you have to take just about anybody over the Yankees. This time, it looks like Boston has the talent to make good and actually beat the Evil Empire. The Yankees rotation is a big question mark after Mussina, and the bullpen is basically a rehash of the Jays pens from the last five years plus Mariano Rivera, so look for the Yankees to be very vulnerable during the middle innings.

Meanwhile, Schilling and Pedro should give the Sox a chance to be in every game they pitch, and it looks like Bronson Arroyo might have figured out what he's doing. I'm sure the "Yankee magic" will come into play at some point in the series, and Derek Jeter will probably catch a fly ball while saving a small child from oncoming traffic, but in the end it won't be enough. Sox in 6.

Christopher James: These are gonna be a crazy couple of series, no doubt about it.   

Boston/New York.  Jeez, where to start?  The starters match up ok—don’t believe the hype—Javier le Expo and Boo Cito Mussina are as good as any two pitchers in the game... any two except maybe Schilling and Pedro.  As far as the rest of the guns go, Leiber, Brown, and El Duque are pretty equal to Lowe, Wakefield, and Arroyo: they could be potential disasters or come up big.  Really odd bunch of starters that way — think about Wakefield and Lowe, how up and down their seasons have been.  Think about Brown and El Duque, I mean, game to game these guys are either brilliant or terrible.

The offense leans in favor of Boston, as does the fielding.  Any lineup with Olerud, Sierra and Cairo in it every day is not a sound lineup.  Picking up Cabrera and Meintkewicz was huge for Boston’s infield defense.  This will be a brutal series.  Look for Manny and Ortiz to put on a show, but my pick for MVP is Johnny Damon, and Boston in seven games.  The teams are fairly well matched, but in the end, Loiaza will tip the scales in Boston’s favor.    

Houston and St. Louis are both incomplete teams that hit like sons of bitches.  Both have glaring holes in their starting staff, but we all know that.  As Joel wrote, Houston had problems with a weak Atlanta squad (screw their record, they stunk), and yes, seemed to lack a killer instinct.  But they can hit, and Clemens and Oswalt are tough mothers when they are on.  St. Louis... well, they can hit, and hit a lot.

I look for this series to go back and forth with plenty of 10-8 games, but I think, in the end, St. Louis will motor past Houston, and face the Red Sox in the World Series.  MVP Albert Pujols.  St. Louis in seven.

Sean Doyle: Well, a couple of matchups that must make Fox Sports pretty happy.

Yankess / Red Sox: We've been hearing about this one since about 5 minutes after the Aaron Boone home run... so both teams can hit a ton, both teams have some great starters and a top notch closer, but I think this one comes down to depth.

The Red Sox have a stronger bench and a bullpen not full of Jays castoffs (with apologies to Paul Quantrill). One of Joe Torre's great strengths in the post-season is that he is good a hiding a lack of depth - he often pares down his bullpen to have only his best 3 or maybe 4 guys pitching any significant innings. After Rivera and Gordon, however, his options aren't so good. The rubber-armed Quantrill has been hit hard for the last month or so, and unless all the guys in the rotation can go 7 or 8 innings Torre will have no choice but to use mediocre pitchers against those wacky Boston hitters. His lefty is Felix Heredia, so late inning matchups will favour Boston a lot.

I'd say Boston in 5, but we'll spot the Yankees a win since the baseball gods hate Boston. Sox in six.

Saint Louis and Houston can both hit too, and both have a lot of question marks with their pitching. I guess the good-pitching-beats-good-hitting thing skips a year sometimes. Houston was a .500 team when the they sacked Jimy Williams, but they've been simply amazing since then. I don't know what the biggest Wildcard comeback has ever been but this team must be up there. Both teams have a lot of depth, both teams love their light-hitting catchers, so their vaunted hitting power is an advantage for St.Louis, but a minor one. I'd give Houston the edge in pitching, especially at closer where Brad Lidge has been great. Houston in six

If I'm right we'll all be really tired of hearing about Rogers Clemens back in Boston for the last time again.

Summary:
ALNL
Sean DoyleBoston 6Houston 6
Christopher JamesBoston 7St. Louis 7
Jim TurnerBoston 6St. Louis 6
Joel WilliamsYankees 7St. Louis 6