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TBG Staff - January 4, 2006
Item: Blue Jays sign B.J. Ryan to a 5-year, $47 million contract.
Joel Williams:
The big money... nay, huge money spent on bringing Blue Jay Ryan to Toronto was great. But not because it brought the Jays the best closer
in baseball. (Ryan is hardly that.) And not even because it brought the Jays
something they've lacked since Duane Ward blew a tire. And not because it brought the Jays the flexibility to deal Miguel Batista. It was great
because it brought the Jays respectability. (Drop the R in brought and you've got what really happened.)
It said, "Hey, we're players again. Come sign with us, Brian Giles, A.J. Burnett. We're going to take a run at the Yanks and BoSox. And this time we
mean it." And I loved it. It's not my money, but it is my hope. And won't it be nice to have faith that when Gussy Chacin hands over the ball in the
7th inning, there's a deep, talented Jay's pen anchored by BJ Ryan to finish games out?
Christopher James:
I'm with Joel. Is it a rich deal? Yes. Was there any closer available via free agency or through a trade with a better upside? No.
It was a deal that had to be made, almost regardless of the cost. Does the
deal buy respect? Does paying up impress other players to make the run
north? Does this deal help JP with the ladies? Probably. But the most
important factor here, really, is that Batista was killing me to watch.
Killing me.
There are a million numbers that can be thrown up, but I'll stick with three. Ryan is 30. Last season his ERA was 2.43 compared to
Batista's 4.10. Last season batters hit .208 against him compared to Batista's .268. I can already feel my summer ulcers receding.
Jim Turner:
This was an insane amount of money, and probably means that
Ricciardi will have to return his "Moneyball" decoder ring, since one of the
tenets of Billy Beane and his Oakland disciples is that effective relievers
can be found cheaply in the minors and through trades. It's generally not a
sound investment to give a reliever a 5-year deal, and at nearly $10 million
a year, it's a huge risk.
But if you're going to invest in a closer, Ryan's numbers going forward look
very promising. Especially his strikeout rates. Plus, the rest of the pen
generally conforms to the low-cost blue print, with Frasor, Chulk and
Speier.
Plus, there's a "Canada tax" that the Jays have to pay in order to attract
free agents north of the border. That's just the inflationary nature of
doing business in Toronto. If the team improves and the Jays can get back to
the glory days of the early '90s, that price may come down, as more players
want to come here. So, I see the $47 million as more than just an investment
in Ryan. But if Ryan doesn't perform to expectations, any added benefits to
his signing won't matter and this deal will look ridiculous.
Ryan is just 30, so this isn't exactly Randy Myers Part Two. He's
been a dominant reliever for the past two seasons. Assuming his arm holds
up - always the big if with pitchers - he could look quite a bit like Billy
Wagner over the next five years. He could save 175 games over the next 5
years. But at least one of them will have to be in the playoffs to justify
this deal.
Sean Doyle:
The money is a lot - a whole lot. A gigantic dump truck full of $100 bills. American $100 bills. More money than everyone I know has, put together. But its NOT OUR MONEY - the only time player salaries matter is if they prevent the team from making other moves. Rogers and Co. have committed to increasing payroll and we've got 3 other roundtables of new Jays that attests to that.
The other thing that seems clear is that baseball salaries are spiking once again, after a few years where big deals were rare. Every team is reporting profits, and if they're reporting them at all they must be good. Even teams like Kansas City and Pittsburgh are spending.
I imagine the economics guys at the Jays are projecting a lot of inflation in free-agent salaries over the next few years. Remember how Roger Clemens' $8mil/year salary made our heads explode when he signed it? By the end of the deal he was below market value. By 2010 $9 million won't look too bad at all.
Of course a lot can happen to a pitcher in 5 years (here's looking at you, Chan Ho Park, Darren Driefort). But Ryan's got some room to decline and still be effective. A guy with 12K/9 has that luxury. And we've already seen some of the benefits of a signing like this. For the first time since Clemens there is buzz surrounding the Jays, and a player like Glaus is willing to waive his no-trade clause to come here. The years worry me some, but the player and the money, not at all.
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