Free For All: A.J. Burnett
TBG Staff - January 6, 2006

Item: Blue Jays sign A.J. Burnett to a 5-year, $55 million contract

Joel Williams: The Jays think they can make a run at the Yankees and Red Sox. And why not? The BoSox have lost Johnny Damon (albeit to the Yanks) and Manny Ramirez is as good as gone; and the Yankees are an old team, with older pitching. To land the best free agent pitcher available was a necessary step for the Jays - because it didn't take anything away from the squad except for Ted's money.

Now, nay-sayers will say that $55 million is an insane amount of money to throw at a career losing pitcher. I say that wins and loses are a result of circumstance and not a reflection of talent and ability. Don't look at his wins and loses over the past 3 full seasons and just look at his raw numbers (minus 2003 where he started only 4 games): an ERA of 3.44 and almost 1 K per inning. He doesn't give up many homers either.

Working with his old pitching coach and Greg Zaun who calls one hell of a game. A league full of unfamiliar batters. And something to prove. This is going to be good.

Just hope he doesn't get hurt.

Christopher James: Wanted: #2 Starter. Must have ERA consistently under 4. Good K-Rate. Name not Lilly. Under 30 if possible.

Did we do ok? Yes, I think so. It's a lot of money, but at least we're not throwing 5 years and 60 mill. at Kevin Millwood, who's ERA has been over 4 six of his nine seasons (and 2 of his 3 sans Mazzone). Also, this move helps keep Chacin cool in the number 3 slot. We don't want him burning out in his second year under increased pressure now, do we? (see: Hinske, Eric).

Like the Ryan deal, we wanted the best possible player to fill the position, and I believe we found that in Burnett.

And 55 million? Big deal. I spent more renting porn from Rogers during the last five years. This one's on me guys.

Jim Turner: It would have been nice if Burnett could have won 1 more game or taken one less loss in his time with the Marlins. Then at least we'd be spared the lazy "Jays spend $55 million on losing pitcher" headlines.

Names that come to mind when you hear about this deal are Chan Ho Park and Darren Dreifort - both of whom have been complete disasters. Jays fans can take some comfort in the fact that Burnett is a better pitcher than either man. His numbers, like Ryan's, suggest that his chances for future success are pretty good - he strikes out nearly a batter per inning and he does a good job keeping the ball in the park. The big question is health. With the volatile natures of pitchers, it's reasonable to wonder if it's EVER a good idea to give any pitcher a 5-year deal.

If Burnett pulls up lame and goes all Mike Sirotka then, sure, this will be a terrible deal. But the Jays have been pretty good about protecting their starters under the Ricciardi regime, and the risk of overwork to Burnett will be much lower than it was under Jack McKeon.

If his arm holds together, then he's a good bet to provide 200 innings+ per year of 1A starting pitching, which is awfully tasty following Roy Halladay in the Jays rotation. They have an excellent shot of being the best 1-2 combo in the league over the next few years.

My favourite part of this deal is that the Jays targetted the guys they wanted this offseason, and then went out and did what was necessary to land them. No plan Bs this year, as they watch the likes of Matt Clement sign elsewere. Burnett was the best free agent arm available, and now he's a Blue Jay. That's reason for excitement.

Did they overpay? Yes, but not by $55 million. Matt Clement pulls down $8.3 per year, Eric Milton makes 8.5. Kevin Millwood - two years older than Burnett - just signed for $12 million per year. Pitching is expensive. $11 million for Burnett isn't optimal, but it has made the Jays a legitimate threat in the AL East.

Sean Doyle: AJ and BJ will always be linked together as the 5 year, whole lot of money pitchers of '06. But AJ's injury history makes this one a bit riskier, and the extra innings a (healthy) starter will pitch gives it more upside. I do think the Jays felt the need to make a stand in the AL East, and they felt this year was the time to do so.

I'm not too worried about the $55 million aspect since (a) it's the going rate for a free agent starter of his caliber, (b) Dustin McGowan and friends aren't of his caliber yet, and (c) in a few years $11 million/year won't go nearly as far. And of course (d) its not my money.

The opt out clause (after 3 years) means the Jays are assuming the risk of Burnett being hurt and/or ineffective without the guaranteed reward if he is as good or better than expected. Ricciardi is taking a gamble here, but fans have to admire his willingness to get his man.