Free For All: Lyle Overbay
TBG Staff - January 7, 2006

Item: Blue Jays trade P Dave Bush, OF Gabe Gross and P Zach Jackson to Milwaukee for 1B Lyle Overbay and a PTBNL

Christopher James: With the addition of Burnett, Bush wasn't gonna start this year - same goes for Gross, who couldn't capitalize on his monster spring last year. Will the two castaways be good MLB players in the future? I hope so, and I think they might, like 45% sure they might, same goes for Jackson, maybe 40% for him.

Overbay has proven that he is a major league player, and I'd take one sure thing over 2 maybes who have not succeeded consistently at the big show, and an unproven tyke, any day. Overbay is cheap and young, and in the near future could be a .300/25/100/100 type of guy. I'm like 65% sure of that. Great OPS, walks 80 times a season, a good find.

Would I prefer an outfielder to another corner guy? Sure. But I like Overbay's potential to grow, and players like him, at his age, are rarely available. Now, with me everyone, Thank you again Cecil for your lovely rotund son.

Jim Turner: Overbay is cheap, though not all that young - he'll be 29 at the end of January, so he won't suddenly blossom into a 40 homer guy. He does give the Jays a serious on-base threat, which they have lacked. It's a shame that Steve Simmons missed that completely when he rated Eric Hinske equal to overbay based on "RBIs per at bat, more runs scored and more doubles hit." (The Last Word, December 11, 2005)

Of course, this completely ignores the fact that Overbay sports a .373 career OBP to Hinske's .335, which means he doesn't use up nearly as many outs and is tremendously more valuable. Overbay isn't great against left-handers, but he does own a .798 OPS against southpaws, so he doesn't need a platoon partner.

He also doesn't become a free agent for a few seasons, which is nice, considering their Burnett/Ryan/Glaus shopping spree.

Gross won't be missed, since his upside at this point is Jayson Werth, and who misses Jayson Werth? I like Bush quite a bit, but he wouldn't have a spot in the rotation this season anyway, and there are more young pitchers on the way. Zach Jackson could come back to haunt them, but it's also entirely possible that his shoulder will go SPROING at some point, and we'll never hear of him again.

Sean Doyle: A win-win trade for the Jays and the Brewers.

The Jays are facing a crunch for room on the roster - neither Gross nor Bush were going to help the Jays much this year, and trading them for a player who will help them is a valuable thing. Gross and/or Bush would have either been lost to a waiver claim or else they would have taken up space and we would have lost someone else. This is the value of depth - you turn extra decent players into a very good player. Overbay himself is a good (.283 EqA) but not great hitter who is an upgrade for the team.

Zach Jackson has potential, but the Jays have a lot of pitching depth in the minors, and at some point you'll get caught in a numbers problem unless you make deals like this.

If the Jays had not made this deal its easy to imagine both Gross and Bush lost through waivers, so to get value for them now is a wise move.

Joel Williams: Agreed: The Jays dealt from strength to improve their team. Gross and Bush will not be missed. And hopefully Jackson will be forgotten. I'm not a huge fan of Overbay but he does give the Jays another good hitter. That he plays first base and has never hit 20 homers is a bit of a letdown.

But when Eric Hinske doesn't live up to his potential, why not trade for his potential in the flesh?