Jim Turner - January 12, 2006
On Tuesday, the Baseball Hall of Fame announced the election of reliever Bruce Sutter, the sole member of the class of 2006.
To quote Homer Simpson, "Oh, not Souter!" True, he was talking about Supreme Court Justice David Souter, but the sentiment is worth repeating in this case.
Sutter's election proves that the baseball writers don't really know how to react to modern relievers.
Consider the following pitchers:
Sutter had more big seasons than Henke, winning the Rolaids Relief Award four times and a Cy Young Award. Sutter has about 250 innings pitched on Henke, which is a big edge, due mostly to the changes in reliever usage from the 70s to the 90s. Sutter topped 100 innings 4 times, while Henke's high was 94. Sutter was a six-time all-star, Henke two. He led the league in saves five times to Henke's one.
Then you have Henke's advantages, which include edges in WHIP, career saves, strikeouts per inning and ERA. The ERA edge is especially impressive considering the tougher hitting era and league in which he pitched. Henke's career ERA was 56 percent better than the league average - a better number than Sutter, Rich Gossage, John Franco, Robb Nen, Trevor Hoffman, Lee Smith, not to mention Rollie Fingers and Hoyt Wilhelm - the other two career relievers in the Hall.
Each man was a world champion once, though Henke's overall post season numbers are slightly better: 2-0, 1.83, 5 saves in 15 games to Sutter's 2-0, 3.00, 3 saves in 6 games. Henke did have a couple of blown saves, but in games that the Blue Jays later came back to win, including game 6 of the 1992 World Series.
Remarkably, Henke had an ERA worse than league average only once in his career, in 1984, when he pitched 28.3 innings for the Texas Rangers. He posted an ERA 80% better than league average (adjusted for ballpark) 7 times. Sutter by comparison was 50% better than league average just 3 times.
Sutter gets some credit, a la Candy Cummings, for pioneering the split-finger fastball.
Overall, Sutter's superior innings, trophy case, and pioneering pitch leave him with a slightly better Hall of Fame resume than Henke. Henke was more consistent, but Sutter's peak years were more impressive.
Oddly, Henke is probably most responsible for costing himself a better shot at the Hall. He retired in 1995, after posting 36 saves, a career best 1.82 ERA and capturing his only Rolaids Relief Award - one of the strongest final seasons in baseball history. Henke easily could have remained in baseball for another two or three seasons, possibly challenging 400 saves. He opted to retire to his farm instead.
Sutter may have a better Hall of Fame case than Henke, but nowhere near better enough to explain his election, while Henke received just 6 votes in his only year of eligibility and was dropped off the ballot.
In truth, neither Sutter or Henke had careers of sufficient length to warrant plaques. By electing Sutter, a rare misstep by the usually competent BBWAA voters, the Hall of Fame has opened something of a Pandora's box. It's hard to elect Sutter and leave out Gossage, who logged 800 more innings and earned 50 more wins. Dan Quisenberry was every bit the pitcher that Sutter was and a 5-time Rolaids Relief winner. He was dropped off the ballot in his first year of eligibility. What about saves leader Lee Smith?
Sutter's induction gives a boost to the Hall of Fame cases of every modern reliever with 300 + saves, like Franco, Nen, John Wetteland, Troy Percival, all of whom have had fine careers, but Hall of Famers? If you're only going to contribute 80 innings a year, those had better be some spectacular innings. Among current closers, only Mariano Rivera really fits that pedigree. A case can also be made for Trevor Hoffman, who may well clear 500 saves.
Finally, the best argument against Sutter as a Hall of Famer is this man:
G W L SV IP BB K WHIP ERA ERA+
Pitcher A 661 68 71 300 1042.3 309 861 1.14 2.83 136
Pitcher B 642 41 42 311 789.7 255 861 1.09 2.67 156
Pitcher A is our newly minted Hall of Famer, while Pitcher B is Blue Jays closer Tom Henke. Does this mean that the Terminator is bound for Cooperstown?
W L IP SH BB K
Pitcher C 219 179 3928 60 1013 2840
Jim Perry's clone? Vida Blue? No, that's the difference between Bert Blyleven's career numbers and Sutter's. When a man has almost 3000 more strikeouts than you have innings pitched, shouldn't he jump to the front of the Hall of Fame line?
